Experiments

V32: Drought Autopsy

V32: Drought Autopsy

Status: Complete. 50 seeds x 30 cycles x 5 droughts each (250 total drought events).

Question: What happens DURING drought that determines whether a seed develops high Φ\intinfo? V31 showed post-drought bounce predicts final Φ\intinfo, but what creates the bounce?

Result: Integration is trajectory, not event. Mean Φ=0.086±0.032\intinfo = 0.086 \pm 0.032 (95% CI [0.077, 0.095]). Distribution: 22% HIGH / 46% MODERATE / 32% LOW. Max Φ=0.473\intinfo = 0.473 (seed 23, new all-time record). Mean drought mortality 96.8%.

Integration Distribution (V32, 50 seeds)same architecture, same environment — only biography differs0.000.050.100.150.200.300.400.50Φ (late-phase integration)32% LOW(16 seeds)46% MOD(23 seeds)22% HIGH(11 seeds)

Key revision from V31: The first drought bounce does NOT predict final category (r=0.075,p=0.60r = -0.075, p = 0.60). What predicts is the mean bounce across all 5 droughts (ρ=0.599,p=4.4×106\rho = 0.599, p = 4.4 \times 10^{-6}). Integration is built by repeatedly bouncing back, not by a single event. Φ\intinfo trajectory slope separates categories perfectly (ANOVA F=34.38,p=6.3×1010F = 34.38, p = 6.3 \times 10^{-10}): every HIGH seed has positive slope, every LOW seed has negative slope.

Robustness is orthogonal to integration (Mann-Whitney p=0.73p = 0.73). Seeds that survive droughts well are not the same seeds that develop high Φ\intinfo. Effective rank (mean 8.1) does not differ across categories.

The Bottleneck FurnaceRepeated near-extinction forges integration — or fails toΦ (integration)0.000.050.100.15HIGH seed (forged)LOW seed (eroded)popevolution cycles → (red bands = drought, 90–97% mortality)
The Bottleneck Furnace in action. 256 agents face 5 near-extinction events (93-98% mortality). Survivors rebuild the population each time. The Φ\intinfo chart tracks integration climbing — each recovery bounces higher than the last. 12 seconds of simulated evolution compressed from 30 cycles.
Integration Is Biography — Seed 23. The highest-Φ\intinfo seed in 50 (V32) climbs from 0.058 to 0.473 across 30 evolutionary cycles. Each drought (red bands) drops Φ\intinfo, but each recovery bounces back higher. The envelope of peaks rises steadily — the furnace forges by compressing, not accumulating.

Source code